The Intelligence: 2024 is a big year for democracy
Jan 1, 2024
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Ed Carr, the Deputy Editor of The Economist, joins Sarah Birke, the Mexico City bureau chief, to discuss a pivotal year for global democracy with elections in over 70 countries. They delve into the crucial Mexican elections, highlighting the influence of President López Obrador and the rivalry between Claudia Sheinbaum and opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez. Additionally, they explore how ambient music can enhance productivity, offering interesting insights on creating a focused work environment amidst the chaos.
Only 43 out of 71 countries will have genuinely fair elections in 2024, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
The upcoming elections in Mexico, Taiwan, South Africa, Europe, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine are all worth watching for potential shifts in power and surprising outcomes.
Deep dives
2023 Election Results and the Outlook for 2024
The year 2023 witnessed surprising election outcomes in various countries, including Argentina, the Netherlands, and Poland. In Argentina, the Peronist party led by Javier Milei came to power following a year of economic turmoil. The far-right Eurosceptic party, Here to Build, garnered the most votes in the Dutch general election. In Poland, voters favored Donald Tusk, the former president of the EU Council. However, 2024 is anticipated to be an even more significant year, with a record number of people across 76 countries, approximately 4 billion individuals, eligible to vote. Despite the sheer number of elections, not all of them are projected to be fully free and fair. The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that only 43 out of 71 countries will have genuinely fair elections.
Upcoming Elections in Major Countries
In 2024, eight out of the ten most populous countries will hold elections, with varying levels of competitiveness and fairness. In Russia and Bangladesh, the incumbents, Vladimir Putin and Sheikh Hasina, respectively, are expected to maintain their positions due to limited competition and restrictions on political participation. Mexico's upcoming election is expected to result in Claudia Sheinbaum, a protege of current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, assuming the presidency. Pakistan's election is uncertain due to the imprisonment of the main opposition leader and the presence of violence. Out of the four remaining countries, the United States, Brazil, Indonesia, and India, the elections will be contested, but they are still classified as flawed democracies according to rankings from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Other Noteworthy Elections in 2024
Beyond the major countries, several other elections will be worth watching. Taiwan's election will be closely monitored by China, given the impact it may have on the region. In South Africa, disillusionment with the ruling ANC party may result in a shift of power, although a substantial change is not expected in this election cycle. In Europe, parliamentary elections will highlight the battle lines between populist and right-wing parties and more centrist alternatives. Additionally, the United Kingdom's election, specifically for the position of Prime Minister, may mark the end of the Conservative party's 14-year tenure. Ukraine's election is also of significance, as President Volodymyr Zelensky faces potential challenges and political complexities. While some elections may lack competitiveness or fairness, surprises can still arise within these political processes, making each election worth following.
Citizens across more than 70 countries will be heading to the polls over the next twelve months. It’s a record year for voting, but how democratic will the processes be? One of the year’s most significant elections will take place in Mexico, where the incumbent president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, will loom large. (10:35). And, how ambient music can help you block out the noise. (17:44).
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