It's commonly accepted wisdom that presidents are less effective in their second terms, when the term limits of the 22nd amendment turn them into Lame Ducks who cannot be elected to office a third time.
But what if that common wisdom is wrong?
Former NYU economics professor William Silber, author of The Power of Nothing to Lose: The Hail Mary Effect in Politics, War and Business, argues that lame ducks only appear less effective because, with nothing left to lose, they pursue goals that are more ambitious and more difficult. And nothing-to-lose, gamble-it-all-on-the-win behavior can also be seen in presidential campaigns when candidates trail badly in the polls or fear a defeat will end their careers.
With two former presidents on the ballet this fall, Silber forecasts what to expect from the campaigns and potential administrations of the contendors.
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[Abridged] Presidential Histories