"This Won't Last" with Keith Rabois, Kevin Ryan, Logan Bartlett, and Zach Weinberg Trump's Inauguration, Tech's Shifting Politics, and US GDP Growth Wall
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Jan 18, 2025 The conversation kicks off with a look at Silicon Valley's surprising turnout at Trump’s inauguration. There's a deep dive into the evolution of Trump's political strategy and how he managed to connect with tech leaders. The struggle of the U.S. economy to reach growth rates reminiscent of the 1950s to 2000s is dissected, alongside a discussion about the changing dynamics of energy regulation in tech. Moreover, they touch on the impact of immigration policies and the shifting corporate engagement in political issues amidst ongoing debates about crime and urban safety.
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Predicting Elections
- Keith Rabois publicly predicted Trump's 2016 win.
- He accurately foresaw the electoral vote outcome while missing the popular vote by a small margin.
Election Prediction Difficulty
- Predicting elections is easier than rocket science, according to Keith Rabois.
- Most political pundits are last-principle thinkers, unlike first-principle thinkers who analyze data.
Internal Campaign Polling
- Kamala Harris's team never polled a win for her in the entire race.
- Trump's team also never polled a loss, revealing insider knowledge about the election outcome.