The Globalist A look ahead to 2026
Jan 1, 2026
In this insightful discussion, guests tackle the future of Europe with Gorana Gergic, who highlights the need for defense autonomy amid shifting US support. Senior economist Stefan Angrich warns of a potential slowdown in the Asia-Pacific, driven by weakening exports and the challenges of AI demand. Juliet Linley reflects on Pope Leo XIV's impactful first year, emphasizing his outreach to youth and traditionalists. Lastly, Carlotta Ribello shares a sneak peek into Davos' soft-power diplomacy and key global events to watch in 2026.
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Europe's Defense Moment Of Truth
- The EU faces a core test of whether it can build military capability and industrial depth to deter Russia and act autonomously as US support becomes less predictable.
- 2026 will be about delivery: turning plans into concrete projects, procurement and financing rather than more announcements.
From Roadmaps To Real Projects
- The EU has launched major integrated initiatives like 'We Arm Europe' and a defense readiness roadmap pledging ~€800bn to 2030 to boost joint procurement and industry depth.
- Success depends on nine capability coalitions translating into concrete projects and joint buying instead of reverting to national silos.
Industrial Politics Hindering Integration
- Defense-industrial fragmentation persists because states use military spending to secure domestic jobs and political gains, slowing European integration.
- Disputes like the French–German fighter jet row illustrate persistent nationalist incentives that threaten collaborative projects.