Ryan O'Connor discusses his bullish thesis on Nintendo, highlighting potential opportunities like licensing games to Microsoft/Sony, subscription business models, expanding IP into theme parks/movies/TV shows, and mobile strategy evolution. Also covers his investing style and success with Gan, emphasizing the strategic shift in Nintendo's business model and future value creation through pro console release.
Nintendo's potential to license games to Microsoft or Sony opens up new revenue streams.
Transition to a subscription model and expansion into theme parks enhance Nintendo's profitability.
Increased R&D investment signals Nintendo's strategic move towards digital innovation and potential partnerships.
Deep dives
Evolution of Crossroads Capital's Strategy
Crossroads Capital's strategy focuses on small and micro-cap growth businesses undergoing value and luck change. The fund insists on a hard catalyst to benefit from liquidity-driven changes in the market regime. This approach aims to find setups with institutional barriers to capitalize on massive demand.
Success Story of Investing in GAN
Investing in GAN exemplifies finding mispriced stocks due to broken market mechanisms. The company's undervaluation was driven by structural factors like indexation and radical monetary policy. By identifying hard catalysts for stock re-rating and leveraging institutional demand, the investment in GAN led to significant returns despite initial doubts from others.
Nintendo's Strategic Transformation and Market Position
Nintendo's strategic shift to a recurrent revenue model utilizing the Switch platform reflects industry trends. The transition from hit-driven to software-centric business models positions Nintendo for stable, recurring revenues with high margins. Furthermore, potential collaborations with tech giants hint at future monetization opportunities leveraging Nintendo's legendary IP and digital presence.
Nintendo's Strategic Increase in R&D Spending
Nintendo has shown a significant increase in research and development spending, particularly noticeable in the uptick of around $150 million allocated to R&D. This surge in investment is believed to be earmarked for enhancing software and hardware, potentially towards innovative projects like cloud computing collaborations with companies like Microsoft. The substantial increase in R&D expenditure hints at Nintendo's strategic push towards digital initiatives and potential partnerships that could revolutionize its future offerings.
Nintendo's Future Growth Opportunities and Optionality
Nintendo's vast intellectual property portfolio, including iconic franchises like Mario and Zelda, lays a solid foundation for exploring numerous avenues for future growth and value creation. The company's ability to leverage its IP across diverse platforms, such as theme parks, movies, and potential dedicated console iterations like the rumored 'pro' version, showcases expansive avenues for revenue generation. With a focus on innovation, adaptability, and strategic partnerships, Nintendo stands to capitalize on its rich legacy of creating high-quality games, positioning itself for sustained success in the ever-evolving gaming landscape.
Ryan O'Connor, founder of Above Average Odds Investing and Crossroads Capital, discusses his bull thesis on Nintendo. Our discussion focuses on all of the optionality Nintendo has, including what would happen if Nintendo licensed their games to Microsoft or Sony, how Nintendo cold roll out a subscription style business, and the upside as Nintendo continues to expand their IP into theme parks, movies, and TV shows. We also talk about the company's mobile strategy and how the continued evolution of Mario Kart World Tour could lead to a huge hit.
We also discuss his background and his investing style, including his big win this year investing in Gan.
You can find Crossroads Capital 2018 Annual Letter (which includes its Nintendo bull case) here: https://bit.ly/34pKpSR
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