WEALTHTRACK Acclaimed Historian Niall Ferguson on the Damage of Tariff Uncertainty
Jun 21, 2025
Niall Ferguson, a renowned historian and senior fellow at Stanford and Harvard, dives into the ramifications of tariff uncertainty on the economy. He connects Trump's tariff policies with COVID-19's disruptions, emphasizing their influence on global supply chains and consumer prices. Ferguson also discusses the intense U.S.-China trade war and its contrasting impacts on both nations, while raising alarms about the uncertainty unsettling businesses. Finally, he shares investment insights during these turbulent times and the potential benefits for European stocks from increased defense spending.
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Tariffs as a supply shock
- Trump's tariff hike is likened to a supply shock similar to COVID-19's impact on supply chains.
- This shock disrupts global trade and will lead to higher prices and shortages temporarily.
Tariffs as hidden consumer tax
- The US tariff jump to 10% represents a massive tax hike on imported goods.
- Consumers will bear most costs through higher prices, despite claims tariffs hit exporters.
Supply chains adapt to tariffs
- Global supply chains are complex and can reroute imports through third countries to bypass tariffs.
- This complicates efforts to decouple the US economy from China with tariffs alone.
