SumerSports Show Why teams don't "take the points" & how to defend heavy TE personnel w/ Shawn Syed & ESPN's Seth Walder
Nov 19, 2025
Shawn Syed, a scheme analyst focused on defensive strategy, discusses how the Seahawks and Rams faced heavy tight end personnel. He explains Seattle's tactical dominance and their ability to disrupt the Rams' offense. Joining him is Seth Walder, ESPN's quantitative analyst, who dives into fourth-down decision-making. He breaks down win-probability models and the reasons teams often don't take the points, highlighting the factors that influence these critical decisions. Together, they unpack the interplay between analytics and on-field strategies.
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Seahawks Neutralized Three-Tight-End Looks
- The Seahawks beat Rams 13-personnel by matching light personnel with nickel/dime and trusting their front four.
- Mike McDonald prioritized covering the pass with tall, physical slot linebackers rather than automatically playing base against heavy sets.
Nickel/Dime Are The New Standard
- The NFL has shifted toward nickel/dime as standard; base is less common now.
- Teams like the Rams frequently match 11 personnel with dime to prioritize pass coverage.
Make Offenses Prove Their Run Game
- Defenses should sometimes refuse to heavy-match just because the offense shows extra tight ends.
- Make offenses prove run/pass effectiveness instead of immediately switching to base personnel.