#1265 Lance Lambert | The Housing Market Is Completely Broken
Oct 23, 2023
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Lance Lambert, co-founder & CEO of ResiClub, discusses the housing affordability crisis in the US, factors affecting affordability, and the launch of ResiClub. They explore rising housing prices, stagnant incomes, and potential solutions such as lowering rates or reducing house prices. They also highlight the complexities surrounding monetary policy and construction, questioning if the current situation is the new normal.
Housing affordability in the United States has reached its lowest point in three decades due to soaring home prices and increased mortgage rates.
Improving housing affordability requires a decrease in mortgage rates, income growth, or a decrease in housing prices.
The Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions have impacted housing affordability by pushing mortgage rates higher.
Deep dives
Housing affordability is at a historic low
Housing affordability in the United States has deteriorated rapidly, reaching its lowest point in three decades. This is primarily due to the soaring prices of homes relative to incomes and the significant increase in mortgage rates. Homebuyers today are paying up to 120% more for their mortgages compared to buyers just two and a half years ago. The speed at which housing affordability has declined is unprecedented, with a historic overheating of prices during the pandemic followed by a rapid increase in mortgage rates.
Factors affecting housing affordability
Housing affordability is determined by three key factors: incomes, prices, and mortgage rates. While prices and rates have moved against buyers, incomes have not kept up with the rapid increases in housing costs. To improve affordability, either mortgage rates need to decrease, incomes need to rise, or prices need to fall. However, historically, improvements in affordability tend to occur more slowly than deteriorations. It is worth noting that the pandemic initially created a surge in housing demand, especially for larger living spaces, contributing to the overheating of prices.
The role of the Federal Reserve in housing affordability
The Federal Reserve recognizes the impact of housing affordability on the economy. Studies have shown that a significant portion of the price appreciation during the pandemic was driven by the work-from-home effect and increased demand for more housing space. However, the Fed's primary concern is controlling inflation, with housing prices being a contributing factor. The Fed's interest rate decisions do not directly target housing affordability but focus on broader economic factors. Nevertheless, the Fed's rate hikes have played a role in pushing mortgage rates higher and impacting affordability.
Regional variations and market corrections
The housing market has experienced regional variations in the effects of deteriorating affordability. Markets that saw the most significant price increases during the pandemic, such as Austin and Boise, have experienced corrections, with prices declining by around 10-15%. However, there are other markets in Connecticut, New Jersey, and the Midwest that continue to see price increases despite higher mortgage rates. Factors such as the influx of people seeking more affordable housing and the ability to cash-flow investments in certain regions contribute to these variations.
Future outlook and the role of Rezi Club
The future of housing affordability remains uncertain. It is anticipated that affordability will continue to be challenged, with affordability levels remaining at historic lows for some time. Solutions to improving affordability include potential decreases in mortgage rates, income growth outpacing price growth, or a decrease in housing prices. However, it is challenging to predict when or how these improvements might occur. Rezi Club, a new media publication focused on residential real estate, aims to shed light on housing market trends, analytics, and insights to help individuals better understand and navigate the complex landscape of housing affordability.
Lance Lambert is the co-founder, editor-in-chief, & CEO of ResiClub, a brand new media publication that I co-founded with Lance to cover residential real estate. In this conversation, we talk about housing affordability, how we got here, why it’s so bad, impact of interest rates, specific market analysis of what’s hot & what’s not, potential solutions, and what Lance is building with ResiClub.
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