80,000 Hours Podcast

#213 – Will MacAskill on AI causing a “century in a decade” – and how we're completely unprepared

608 snips
Mar 11, 2025
Will MacAskill, a philosopher and AI strategy researcher, discusses the potentially explosive advancements in AI that could compress a century's worth of change into just ten years. He elaborates on the implications of AI surpassing human capabilities, leading to rapid scientific progress and the urgency of adapting societal institutions. MacAskill also highlights the critical risks associated with AI, such as power concentration and ethical dilemmas, calling for proactive governance and alignment with human values to navigate this unprecedented transformation.
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INSIGHT

AGI Preparedness Focus

  • Will MacAskill now takes the potential of human-level AI and an intelligence explosion much more seriously.
  • His updated view is driven by recent AI advancements and the impact of early AI safety work.
INSIGHT

Inside View Wins

  • 'Inside view' reasoning, focusing on specific mechanisms, has been more accurate than 'outside view' statistical reasoning in predicting technological trends.
  • Examples include COVID predictions, vaccine timelines, solar power trends, and AI progress.
ANECDOTE

Century in a Decade (Past)

  • Imagine 1925 but with 2025 technology like nuclear weapons and the internet in 10 years.
  • This illustrates the intense change of a century's progress in a decade, challenging human institutions.
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