The hosts dive into the chaotic trade negotiations that almost spiraled into a war with Canada and Mexico. They reveal the absurdities behind Trump's proposed U.S. sovereign wealth fund. A captivating discussion unfolds on sports betting's legal landscape, particularly as companies find ways to monetize events like the Super Bowl despite state restrictions. Plus, the differences between betting and futures trading come into focus, shedding light on regulations that influence both. It's a blend of economic insights and entertaining banter.
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Quick takeaways
The last-minute postponement of Trump's tariffs on Canada and Mexico indicates the unpredictability of trade negotiations under his administration.
Critics question the viability of Trump's proposed U.S. sovereign wealth fund due to the national debt, lacking a solid implementation strategy.
Kalshi highlights the evolving nature of sports betting laws as it provides a workaround for betting on the Super Bowl in states with restrictions.
Deep dives
Recent Developments in Trade Tariffs
This week, the potential start of a trade war with Mexico and Canada was an important topic, which surprisingly did not materialize. Initially, President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods imported from these countries, causing widespread concern regarding its impact on trade and the auto industry. However, due to a last-minute agreement involving troop deployment from Mexico to the U.S. border, the tariffs were postponed, seemingly showcasing Trump's negotiating tactics. This situation reflects the unpredictability of trade negotiations under Trump, leading many to believe that similar threats and discussions could arise in the future.
Understanding the Sovereign Wealth Fund Proposal
The discussion around Trump's proposal for a U.S. sovereign wealth fund raised eyebrows, as it appears to lack a clear mechanism for implementation without Congress's approval. Inspired by other countries' funds, Trump seeks to create a similar entity, but critics argue it makes no sense given the current national deficit. Unlike nations with significant surpluses, the U.S. has a massive national debt, raising questions about the economic rationale behind such a fund. This proposal has sparked skepticism regarding Trump's motives and whether the fund might be used for personal interests, contrasting with the sound financial principles observed in countries like Norway or Singapore.
The State of Sports Betting in America
The Super Bowl was brought into the conversation as a significant event for sports betting, especially given the recent waves of legalization. While many states have embraced legal sports betting, Texas remains one of the holdouts, leading to creative workarounds like Kalshi, which offers bets on event outcomes without technically qualifying as sports betting. This situation highlights a growing desire to participate in betting markets, even as regulators grapple with the distinctions between gambling and futures contracts for events. The ongoing discourse suggests that how states manage sports wagering laws will continue to evolve, particularly with the increasing popularity of the Super Bowl.
The Impact of Delivery Duties on Lumber Imports
The podcast emphasized the complexity of U.S.-Canada trade, particularly focusing on the 14.4% duty imposed on Canadian lumber imports. This longstanding issue is rooted in differing market structures, with the U.S. private lumber industry alleging unfair competition from Canadian lumber, which is primarily government-subsidized. Current negotiations could lead to a potential doubling of this duty, further complicating trade relationships. Such tariffs not only impact pricing and availability within the housing market but also reflect broader trends concerning trade disputes in North America.
Consumer Behavior Amid Price Volatility
A brief discussion highlighted significant cultural habits regarding Super Bowl viewing, notably inflated ticket prices and extravagant spending on events and related products. The phenomenon of people willing to spend exorbitant amounts on Super Bowl tickets, which can start around $7,000, was compared to other high-cost events. This reflects a broader cultural trend of consumer willingness to invest heavily in experiences, even amid financial uncertainties. The implication is that as costs for attending major events continue to rise, consumer sentiment towards spending in the entertainment sector remains robust.
This week: Trump almost started a trade war with our nearest neighbors. Felix Salmon, Emily Peck, and Elizabeth Spiers explain why Trump’s trade war with Canada and Mexico not happening is still newsworthy. Then, Felix breaks down why Trump’s plan for a US sovereign wealth fund makes no sense. And finally, Kalshi seems to have found a loophole by offering event contracts on the Super Bowl even in states where sports betting is illegal. The hosts discuss the distinctions between betting and trading futures, and how each are affected by their respective regulating entities.
In the Slate Plus episode: Egg Watch 2025 gets its own episode.
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Podcast production by Jessamine Molli and Cheyna Roth.