The Macro Dirt Podcast Rates are Ripping
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Dec 9, 2025 A global rate shock sends yields soaring across multiple countries, prompting a discussion on the implications for the U.S. and worldwide. The hosts analyze a bid dollar and a pullback in commodities, alongside mixed signals in gold and silver markets. They debate the Fed's potential cut and explore a future where tech deflates while commodities thrive. Additionally, the conversation touches on sector rotations and the surprising inclusion of Carvana in the S&P, highlighting the importance of trading discipline.
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Global Rates Are Breaking Out
- Global yields are breaking higher across Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Europe, Japan and the US 10-year has broken its downtrend.
- Tony Greer and Jared Dillian see a coordinated rate move that could reshape commodity and FX flows.
10-Year Yield Technical Breakout
- The US 10-year yield has technically broken out above its downtrend and 100-day moving average, signaling a potential serious breakout.
- Tony warns this move coincides with a bid dollar and a commodity pullback as rates climb.
Position For A Hawkish Fed Cut
- Expect a likely Fed cut but prepare for a hawkish tone and limited follow-through beyond 2025.
- Monitor Fed language and position for a single hawkish cut rather than a series of declines.