In Moscow's Shadows

In Moscow's Shadows 156: Are Putin's Praetorians up to the challenges of the future?

Jul 21, 2024

Exploring the challenges faced by Russia's National Guard, Rosgvardiya, in maintaining public order and handling protests, with a focus on their involvement in the Ukraine war. The podcast discusses recruitment struggles, power struggles within the organization, and the impact on morale and sponsorship difficulties.

57:39

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Quick takeaways

The National Guard faces internal challenges and operational overstretch from Ukraine deployments, hindering swift crisis response.

Growing discontent within Russia poses a threat of significant protests beyond typical demonstrations, testing the Guard's control.

Zolotov's leadership in the National Guard confronts recruitment problems and a split command structure, raising concerns over strategic vision.

Deep dives

Overview of Roscovardia and Its Evolution Under Zolotov

Roscovardia, formed in 2016 by Putin, changed the landscape of Russian security institutions, reflecting the state's shift towards increased control and suppression. General Kolokolcev's prior focus on rebuilding police ties with society clashed with Zolotov's militaristic approach, redirecting police manpower to public order enforcement.

Intro

12min

Challenges Faced by Russia's Security Forces in Handling Restiveness and Protests

2min

Challenges and uncertainties facing Russia's National Guard

10min

Challenges and Morale Issues in the National Guard: Recruitment Struggles and Sponsorship Difficulties

5min

Challenges and Power Struggles in the Russian National Guard

28min

The Rosgvardiya, the National Guard, is the final backstop of Putin's rule, the public order force on which he relies to control the streets.* However, facing growing protest at home and engaged in pacifying occupied Ukraine, they and their commander, the thuggish Viktor Zolotov, are under pressure. How well are they coping?

*Admittedly, arguably the FSO, the Federal Protection Service, is closer to the Praetorian Guard of Roman times, but I cannot pass up on a nice alliteration...

The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations.

You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to exclusive extra materials right here.

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