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Numerai & Predictoor: How AI Changed Crypto Prediction Markets - Trent McConaghy & Richard Craib
Sep 20, 2024
Trent McConaghy, a pioneer in AI and cryptocurrency, teams up with Richard Craib, an expert on prediction markets, to explore the evolution and impact of prediction markets in crypto. They discuss how AI has transformed these markets through advanced predictive models. The conversation touches on Numerai's unique crypto hedge fund and the collaborative potential with Predictoor. They also delve into the complexities of user dynamics, the future of decentralized prediction markets, and how AI could solve market inefficiencies.
01:20:36
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Quick takeaways
- AI has significantly transformed prediction markets by enabling the development of sophisticated forecasting models that enhance trading decision-making.
- Numerai and Predictoor illustrate different approaches to prediction markets, with Numerai focusing on stock predictions and Predictoor on real-time crypto forecasting.
Deep dives
Understanding Prediction Markets and Feeds
Prediction markets are platforms where individuals can make predictions on future events and stake money based on their forecasts. They operate on a zero-sum basis, meaning the net gain for one participant is the exact loss for another. In contrast, prediction feeds provide continuous streams of predictions and can be structured as positive-sum games, where new capital influx enables participants to make gains. These fundamental differences set the stage for exploring applications across various domains, particularly in decentralized finance (DeFi).
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