Epicenter - Learn about Crypto, Blockchain, Ethereum, Bitcoin and Distributed Technologies Numerai & Predictoor: How AI Changed Crypto Prediction Markets - Trent McConaghy & Richard Craib
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Sep 20, 2024 Trent McConaghy, a pioneer in AI and cryptocurrency, teams up with Richard Craib, an expert on prediction markets, to explore the evolution and impact of prediction markets in crypto. They discuss how AI has transformed these markets through advanced predictive models. The conversation touches on Numerai's unique crypto hedge fund and the collaborative potential with Predictoor. They also delve into the complexities of user dynamics, the future of decentralized prediction markets, and how AI could solve market inefficiencies.
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Prediction Markets as Oracles
- Prediction markets act as oracles, bringing off-chain info on-chain.
- This surfaced information is valuable, not just the betting aspect.
Key Differences: Prediction Markets vs. Feeds
- In prediction markets, the signal is public and free, unlike private, paid prediction feeds.
- Prediction feeds can be positive-sum, with new money from traders.
Traditional Finance Prediction Feeds
- Bloomberg terminal data is a type of prediction feed, like many data vendors.
- These often lack quality signals, unlike staked predictions in Ocean and Numerai.