The Macro Trading Floor ''Run It Hot'': The Comeback?
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Nov 14, 2025 Alf and Brent dive into the resurgence of the 'run it hot' trade fueled by potential fiscal stimulus. They explore the meme-driven volatility in silver and the implications of Meta's earnings on market sentiment. The discussion shifts to strategies for exiting shorts and repositioning long, highlighting the bullish bias from anticipated money creation. With insights on crypto sentiment and selective stock picks like Google, they analyze how weak payroll data could impact market dynamics and propose FX strategies amidst run-it-hot dynamics.
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Momentum Trade Reversal Signals Capitulation
- Momentum trades around AI and precious metals peaked then reversed, signaling growing skepticism about infinite free cash flow claims.
- Brent sees this unwind as a sign it's nearing a low and shifted from shorts to longs.
Close Shorts And Rotate To Selective Longs
- Exit crowded shorts in speculative AI/crypto names as sentiment and setups improve.
- Rotate into selective longs with a short-term bullish horizon into year-end.
Fiscal Shock Could Reignite Nominal Growth
- U.S. fiscal policy is turning materially more expansionary with multiple stimulus levers active.
- Alf argues this creates significant nominal GDP upside and reinforces a 'run it hot' regime.
