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Why VCs think consumer AI hasn't lived up to the hype

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Jan 14, 2026
Chi-Hua Chien, founding partner of Goodwater Capital, and Elizabeth Weil, founder of Scribble Ventures, tackle the underwhelming performance of consumer AI. They explore the transition from the command line era to more intuitive interfaces, predicting that new form factors will unlock broader AI applications. The duo discusses the potential for personalized AI services, from tutoring to finance, and the challenges of building trust in AI agents. They also raise skepticism about AI-driven social networks, highlighting a need for authenticity in interactions.
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INSIGHT

We’re Still In The Command‑Line Era

  • ChatGPT and Gemini are real consumer AI adoption but we're still in an early UI era where text is dominant.
  • The next wave depends on new form factors that change how people interact with AI beyond typing.
INSIGHT

Platforms Must Stabilize First

  • AI platforms need to stabilize before rich consumer apps can flourish like mobile did post-App Store.
  • Platform consolidation and clearer competitive dynamics will reveal where application companies can focus.
INSIGHT

Form Factor Dictates Use Cases

  • Form factor will shape which AI use cases win because devices dictate behavior and data capture.
  • Many promising AI applications require always-on, ambient sensing rather than occasional phone checks.
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