Slate Money Gambling on the Globes & Geopolitics
17 snips
Jan 17, 2026 This week, the hosts dive into Polymarket's live betting integration with the Golden Globes, stirring ethical debates about gambling on artistic awards. They explore the consequences and potential manipulation risks in prediction markets, revealing insider trading concerns. The discussion shifts to the DOJ's investigation of Fed chair Jerome Powell, highlighting his surprising bipartisan support amidst political tensions. Finally, they examine the unsettling rise of Chinese institutions in scientific research, questioning America's investment in innovation.
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Prediction Markets Enter Mainstream TV
- Polymarket and similar prediction markets are moving from offshore play-money niches into mainstream U.S. visibility via marketing tie-ins like the Golden Globes.
- That shift raises unresolved legal and ethical questions because markets can surface insider information and influence real-world outcomes.
Winning Isn't The Same As Well-Priced
- Market accuracy depends on pricing probabilities, not just whether the eventual winner was listed.
- If the highest-priced nominee wins far more than its implied probability, the market is mispriced, not necessarily prescient.
When Bets Reflect Classified Info
- Felix recounts a Polymarket surge around a geopolitical event where an early bettor reportedly made large profits from advance knowledge.
- He contrasts that with far grosser cases where bettors could control outcomes, like betting on an assassination or a public official staging an event.