Rawson Haverty presents "US & China AI: Lessons from Across the Pacific" | dAGI Summit 2025

Rawson contrasts the US and Chinese AI ecosystems through culture, history, and market design. The US channels deep capital into fast-forming, efficient oligopolies that drive closed, frontier models and a massive compute build-out; China orchestrates a state-guided “swarm” that rapidly diffuses (often open-source) AI across industry, leveraging dense supply chains and process skill—but with thinner margins and policy constraints. Capital and AI are framed as parallel forces that centralize if unchecked; each country fears a different failure mode (US: centralized authority; China: disorder). Looking ahead, today’s US lead meets China’s long-term industrial advantages, suggesting a durable, competitive race. The recommended path is a balanced “narrow corridor” that blends US frontier strengths with China’s diffusion strengths—seeking modular, widely accessible intelligence while avoiding both elite techno-feudalism and chaotic collapse.Key takeaways▸ Speaker & lens: Early-stage AI/robotics investor with experience in the US and China; goal is to compare AI market structures and cultures.▸ China’s dualities: Modern infrastructure yet widespread low incomes; strong tech/manufacturing innovation amid macro softness (property, LG debt, youth unemployment); open-source AI leadership despite the Great Firewall; globalization’s winner now pushing self-sufficiency.▸ US vs China—opposites and mirrors: Freedom vs stability/harmony; individual vs family unit; over-consumption vs over-production; democracy vs autocracy—yet each also reflects the other’s excesses (“fearful mirror” idea).▸ Historical roots shape instincts: US frontier ethos → skepticism of centralized authority; China’s recurring upheavals → preference for order and stability (especially among older generations).▸ Different views of capital:* US: Capital as expression of freedom/market choice (but concentrates power via money/compute).* China: Capital as instrument of national priorities (internet crackdown as example).▸ Capital ≈ AI: Both optimize for efficiency/automation; they centralize power if unchecked. The US tends to fear centralized authority; China tends to fear disorder.▸ Market structure archetypes:* US “efficient oligopoly”: Deep capital markets quickly crown category leaders—efficient allocation and reinvestment, but concentrated power and higher prices.* China “subjugated swarm”: State sets direction; provinces fund many firms → Darwinian competition; strengths in volume/quality/cost and process know-how, but lower margins, “involution,” and rising trade pushback.▸ AI ecosystems & priorities:* US: Massive compute build-out, closed frontier models, aim at AGI/ASI and “human transcendence,” global distribution.* China: Tighter cross-sector coordination, rapid diffusion of AI across society, prioritizes open-source/commoditization—useful but can embed political biases.▸ Now vs later: US leads today (chips/compute/users), but long-run trends (power generation, open-source uptake, robotics/industrial base) could tilt some advantages toward China; expect a long, competitive race.▸ Modular vs vertical: Vertically integrated stacks lead now; the speaker expects a gradual shift toward more modular intelligence (distributed incentives harnessing long-tail compute/data/talent), though it’s hard.▸ AI is physical & geopolitical: Energy, fabs, robots, and data centers anchor AI to nation-states → emerging competing operating systems (US stack ≈ Global North; China ≈ parts of Global South).▸ Governance “narrow corridor”: Need balance between strong institutions and strong civil society to avoid AI-induced totalitarianism on one side or anarchy/uncontrolled SI on the other.▸ Complementary strengths: US (frontier, software, 0→1, freedom) + China (diffusion, hardware, 1→n, stability). The tragedy is worsening ties despite potential complementarity; call for mutual curiosity and learning.