War Studies The fall of Assad and its impact on international dynamics
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Dec 21, 2024 Dr. Craig Larkin, a Reader in Middle East Politics, and Siba Madwar, a journalist from Aleppo and PhD student, discuss the stunning collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. They analyze Abu Mohammed al-Jolani's potential role in rebuilding Syria and the regional shifts that may follow. The conversation covers the complexities of establishing inclusive governance, the power vacuum left behind, and the geopolitical impacts involving powers like Turkey and Iran. Insights into the urgent need for social cohesion and addressing war crimes also emerge.
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Unprecedented Collapse
- The rapid fall of Assad's regime was unexpected after 14 years of conflict.
- This sudden collapse highlights the complex and unpredictable nature of political power.
Factors in Assad's Demise
- Regional dynamics, like weakened Hezbollah support due to events in Gaza, played a role.
- Internal factors, including demoralized troops and Assad's focus on external support, also contributed.
Assad's Hollow Victory
- Assad's perceived victory paved the way for his return to the Arab League.
- However, his regime was hollowed out, becoming a narco-state with rampant hyperinflation, leaving soldiers demoralized.