Asianometry China’s Bonkers Bike-share Bubble
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Dec 21, 2025 Explore the rise and fall of China's bike-share phenomenon, hailed as a modern marvel but soon left in ruins. Discover the journey from early innovations and fierce campus rivalries to a chaotic price war with unsustainable subsidies. Uncover the financial pitfalls, customer deposit mishaps, and regulatory responses that led to the collapse of many bike startups. The episode highlights surprising survival strategies and places this wild ride within the broader context of Chinese tech bubbles and their impact.
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Scale Created Visible Externalities
- The Chinese bike-share boom placed 20+ million bikes on streets within a year, creating visible 'graveyards' of abandoned bikes.
- Rapid scale produced social and logistical externalities that defined the bubble's collapse.
Ofo's Campus Origin Story
- Dai Wei founded Ofo from a Peking University cycling club idea and launched on campus with QR-unlocked bikes.
- Rapid campus adoption scaled to 100,000 users and attracted early VC backing.
Mobike's High-Quality Approach
- Hu Weiwei founded Mobike with custom, sturdy bikes and GPS tracking to reduce theft and last four years.
- Mobike grew from 17 rides its first day to over 10,000 bikes in Shanghai within months.