Intelligence Squared Western Intervention and the Rise of Guerrilla Warfare, with David Kilcullen
4 snips
Aug 12, 2022 
David Kilcullen, a former soldier and counterinsurgency advisor, joins Carl Miller, Research Director at Demos, to explore the complexities of Western interventions in Iraq and Afghanistan. They delve into how guerrilla warfare has evolved, driven by technological advancements and the emergence of non-state actors. Key discussions include the risks of misunderstanding modern warfare, economic strategies as new battlegrounds, and the significance of information supremacy in conflicts. They emphasize the interconnectedness of civilians and military strategies in today's geopolitical landscape.
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Adaptation and Evolution of Adversaries
- Adversaries have adapted and evolved under conditions created by the West after the Cold War.
- The first Gulf War forced adaptation for survival.
Return of the Dragons
- The threat landscape has shifted from "snakes" (non-state actors) to include "dragons" (state actors).
- Dragons have learned how to fight the West by observing Western struggles in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Mechanisms of Adaptation
- Adversaries adapt through social learning, natural selection, artificial selection, and institutional adaptation.
- These mechanisms are accelerated by technology and Western actions, sometimes inadvertently strengthening adversaries.
