The Tally Room 149 - The most complex count ever?
May 12, 2025
Kevin Bonham, a Tasmanian election analyst, joins to dissect the complexities of recent Australian electoral counts. He dives into the nuances of close races and late votes, shedding light on how they influence outcomes. The discussion also uncovers the role of strategic voting in tightly contested seats, particularly for Liberal voters in McNamara. Bonham highlights the rising presence of minor right parties like One Nation and the impact of preference flows on the broader electoral landscape. It's a riveting analysis of democracy at play!
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Vote Types Impact Close Races
- Absent and declaration pre-poll votes can significantly impact final results in close contests.
- Independent candidates often suffer on out-of-electorate pre-polls, making swings tough to overcome.
Dynamics of Postal Vote Trends
- Postal votes tend to start conservative but become more progressive as counting continues.
- Early postal ballots may not represent final voter preference trends and can shift counts late.
Teal Independents’ Preference Advantage
- Teal independents struggle on out-of-electorate primaries but gain from preferences from Labor and Greens.
- This helps them remain competitive despite initial vote disadvantages outside their electorate.