Halftime Report Are Mega-Cap Expectations too High? 1/29/26
Jan 29, 2026
Malcolm Etheridge, investment pro with earnings and AI spend chops; Rob Seachin, portfolio manager with stock-specific tech and defense views; Jim LaBenteal, seasoned market commentator; Josh Brown, Ritholtz CEO known for market takes. They dig into Microsoft’s sell-off and AI monetization questions. They contrast Meta’s ad path with Microsoft’s cloud model. They spotlight software drawdowns, IBM’s AI gains, defense winners, and Josh’s pick Nucor.
AI Snips
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Transcript
Episode notes
Mega-Cap AI Spending Faces ROI Scrutiny
- Microsoft’s weak Azure growth plus higher spend exposed fragile mega-cap expectations.
- The market punished a narrow miss as proof valuations demand clear ROI from AI spending.
Narrow Cloud Misses Trigger Massive Market Moves
- A small Azure growth miss (38% vs. whispers ~41%) wiped off hundreds of billions from Microsoft.
- Supply constraints for GPUs explain the shortfall and suggest the hit may be temporary.
Wait For Supply Issues To Normalize
- Expect temporary drawdowns from supply-driven cloud misses and consider waiting for resolution before adding.
- Reassess positions when GPU supply normalizes and ROI becomes clearer, likely by summer.