CONFLICTED The 2026 Middle East Forecast
27 snips
Dec 16, 2025 
Aimen Dean, an ex-Al Qaeda jihadi turned MI6 spy, shares his unique insights into Middle Eastern geopolitics. He discusses the complexities of forecasting, emphasizing the unpredictability of Black Swan events. Aimen predicts that a potential peace in Ukraine could shift U.S. focus towards the Gulf. He foresees a 70% chance of U.S. involvement in Yemen against the Houthis and warns of renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. With Iran's nuclear ambitions at play, Aimen highlights the strategic risks facing the region by 2026.
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How Professional Forecasters Think
- Analysts combine historical patterns, intelligence, rhetoric and commodity indicators to forecast geopolitics.
- Aimen Dean emphasises bonds, insurance premiums and gold as non-obvious early warning signals.
Introduced As An 'Information Broker'
- Aimen recounts being introduced as an 'information broker' to a European ambassador by an intelligence officer.
- That trust network, he says, is how regional intel flows between states and analysts.
Commodities As Political Barometers
- Commodity markets and physical flows give real-time political signals, says Aimen.
- He uses gold buying patterns to infer shifts in confidence and geopolitical stress.