Guest Roko Mijic discusses Putin's alignment strategies and potential AI control techniques. They explore the vulnerability of AGI and ASI to attacks, the future of architecture in machine learning, and the impact of AI on jobs and government. They also touch on the collapse of civilization, property rights, and the challenges of restarting. The speakers emphasize the importance of cooperation, diversity of thought, and addressing AI safety concerns.
AI control relies on a variety of tricks rather than complex equations, making it more effective in practice.
Language models have limitations in generating new ideas or proofs beyond existing human knowledge.
Simulation-based and search models may overcome the limitations of language models to push AI development further.
Strong property rights are crucial for securing a prosperous future and avoiding concentration of power.
Stagnation, misaligned incentives, and government control pose challenges to progress in AI development and protecting personal freedoms.
Deep dives
The value of fossilized human knowledge
The abundance of information and content stored on the internet, books, research papers, and media is like a treasure trove of wisdom. It provides a wealth of valuable resources for AI development and understanding human knowledge.
The potential of AI control and alignment
AI control and alignment, like Vladimir Putin's grasp on Russia, relies on a variety of control tricks rather than complex equations. The power of AI control is likely to be much stronger and more effective in practice than theoretical notions of alignment, given the potential for programmability and vast control tools.
The limitations of language models
Language models such as GPT models, while excellent at mimicking human-like text patterns, struggle with fundamental new ideas or proofs that have not been documented. Their generative abilities are limited to existing human knowledge and lack the ability to push beyond the cutting edge of knowledge.
Moving towards simulation-based models
With the limitations of language models becoming apparent, there is a shift towards simulation-based or search models. The future may involve self-supervised training, collaboration among AI agents, and specialization in specific domains to break through the barriers of human knowledge and propel AI development further.
Importance of Strong Property Rights
Strong property rights are crucial for securing a prosperous future. It allows individuals to have a stake in the future and benefit from technological advancements. Without strong property rights, there is a risk of power being concentrated in the hands of the government, leading to loss of personal freedoms and control over the future.
Risks of Stagnation and Misaligned Incentives
Stagnation and misaligned incentives pose significant challenges to progress. Stagnation can lead to missed opportunities for technological advancements and a decline in living standards. Misaligned incentives can result in the violation of property rights and the concentration of power in the hands of a few. It is crucial to foster cooperation between different actors, including AI companies and open-source models, to work towards the best possible outcome for humanity.
Dangers of Government Control
Government control over AI raises concerns about the protection of property rights and the potential for misuse of power. Governments historically have demonstrated misaligned incentives and have been an obstacle to progress. Granting more control to the government may lead to restrictions on innovation and personal freedoms. It is important to focus on fostering cooperation and strengthening property rights instead of relying on government intervention.
Challenges of Rebuilding Civilization
In the event of a collapse or stagnation, the reconstruction of civilization becomes more difficult. The loss of progress and decline in societal structures create obstacles for rebuilding. Once a civilization reaches a certain point, it becomes harder to restart and regain momentum. It is crucial to avoid scenarios that could lead to such collapses and focus on sustainable progress and the protection of property rights.
Geopolitical Chaos and the Need for Order
The podcast episode discusses the current state of geopolitics, highlighting the excessive chaos present in the world. With concerns regarding Russia, Taiwan, and the Middle East, it is evident that there is a need for more order in this realm. The discussion emphasizes the negative consequences of geopolitical chaos and the importance of addressing this issue.
The AI Safety Debate and the Need for Chaos
The podcast explores the AI safety debate and argues that it has been characterized by too much order and lack of diversity of thought. The dominant voices in the debate, such as Eliezer Yudkowsky, have played a significant role, but their ideas have limitations and may overlook crucial aspects. The call for more chaos in the debate stems from the desire for diverse perspectives and alternative solutions to be considered, ultimately aiming to improve AI safety and shape the future of humanity.
