Ukraine: The Latest US offers Ukraine ‘platinum’ NATO-style security guarantees in ‘breakthrough’ & Kyiv blows up $400m Russian submarine with underwater drones
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Dec 16, 2025 Roland Oliphant, a chief foreign analyst, and James Kilner, a Russian politics expert, tackle major developments in the Ukraine conflict. They discuss the U.S. offering 'platinum' NATO-style security guarantees to Ukraine and the skepticism surrounding Russia's acceptance of these terms. A historic underwater drone attack sinks a Russian submarine, marking a notable shift in military tactics. Additionally, the duo analyzes internal Russian pressures and the unsettling reopening of Mariupol's theatre, reflecting on the human impact of the ongoing war.
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US-Europe 'Platinum' Security Package
- The Berlin joint statement offers NATO-style, legally binding security guarantees and wide support measures for Ukraine.
- Europe and the US framed a package including armed support, ceasefire monitoring and EU accession backing.
Timing And Legal Limits Of Guarantees
- US officials warned Ukraine to accept guarantees now or risk losing them, implying an ultimatum and limited window.
- The proposal may clash with US laws like CAATSA Section 257 and requires congressional and legal workarounds.
Why Russia Will Likely Reject Article-5 Equivalents
- Roland Oliphant argues Russia will reject Article-5-style guarantees because collective defense deployments inside Ukraine violate Moscow's core red lines.
- He warns credibility depends on whether guarantees include real boots and deterrent capacity.