Raoul Pal: The Journey Man Trade Wars, AI, and Bonds: What Investors Need to Know ft. Alex Gurevich
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Apr 24, 2025 In this episode, Alex Gurevich, Founder and CIO of HonTe Investments, shares his unique insights shaped by his background in mathematics and science fiction. He discusses navigating the evolving macroeconomic landscape, emphasizing the importance of understanding economic cycles and liquidity trends. The duo delves into the transformative role of AI, exploring its rapid acceleration toward singularity and the potential constraints posed by energy limitations. Gurevich also sheds light on investment strategies for bonds and the complexities of global currency dynamics.
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Tariffs Could Raise US Rates
- US tariffs designed to reduce current account deficits may lower foreign buying of US assets, impacting bond demand.
- Reduced foreign capital inflows can push US interest rates higher unless domestic sectors absorb the bonds.
Liquidity Breaks Negative Sentiment
- Negative market narratives create self-reinforcing loops lowering sentiment and prices.
- Liquidity injections eventually break these negative cycles and restore market stability.
Trade Long Duration Bonds and TIPS
- Favor long duration bonds and TIPS as they cover a broad range of inflation scenarios.
- Consider long position on interest rate derivatives expecting more rate cuts ahead.