Ep 112: Peter Thiel on DOGE, Tariffs, Building Generational Companies & the Future of Civilization

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Apr 17, 2025

Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and Palantir, discusses his extensive impact on the tech world. He shares insights into building generational companies amid systemic challenges and reveals details about some of his worst investments. Thiel delves into the financial implications of Dogecoin and critiques Trump’s trade policies. The conversation touches on Silicon Valley's cultural stagnation, the influence of AI on manufacturing, and his optimistic view of the political landscape compared to past administrations.

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INSIGHT

Opportunities in Broken Sectors

Broken sectors with non-technical barriers, like tunneling, hold huge value opportunities.
The high cost in places like Manhattan subway shows inefficiency, making disruption lucrative.

INSIGHT

Elite Universities Losing Purpose

Elite universities have lost their organizing purpose as true elite institutions.
Students now arrive lost because the pathway to societal leadership has broken down.

ADVICE

Focus on Tech for Impact

Focus on building or working in tech fields like software, crypto, and AI as the main vectors of progress.
Most other fields are stale or highly difficult to innovate in currently.

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From co-founding PayPal and Palantir to writing the first check into Facebook and investing early in SpaceX, AirBnB, and numerous other unicorns, Peter Thiel has shaped the American technology world for over 25 years. Dozens of our most talented leaders have been inspired by Peter, and as a major influence on how we understand the world, he’s also helped to shape the future of the West. Peter likes exploring clever ideas and wisdom, and loves to win.

What's next for our civilization? How should talented people decide what to focus on? And where are the best opportunities amid our myriad challenges? There's no one better than Peter at understanding broken systems, recognizing civilizational currents, and charting a contrarian course. We begin with his mental framework for building in dysfunctional areas, and why Palantir proved more difficult than we ever thought. Peter reveals his worst investments of the past few decades and why broken sectors are often impervious to change. He explains the talent, philosophy, and timing necessary to build a truly generational company.

We also cover DOGE, President Trump's trade policy, and why Peter is more optimistic about the new administration in Washington than at any point since President Reagan. We discuss whether the vibe shift in Silicon Valley is real, and Peter's theory for how Meta (where he served on the board for 17 years) was captured by the woke mind virus. Lastly, he explains the precursors for cultural revolutions, i.e., the woke backlash, and why he's uncharacteristically bullish on the DOGE movement and new opportunities for lasting political change.

00:00 Episode intro

01:40 UATX vs Harvard

04:45 What should talented people focus on?

07:40 Peter's thesis behind Palantir

11:05 Why Palantir sued the Army

14:30 Optimism vs pessimism

17:10 Peter's worst investment areas

20:30 Peter's perspective on Trump & DOGE

25:45 Trump's trade policy & how to deal with China

30:40 New opportunities in broken areas?

35:10 Los Angeles, Austin, and broken cities

40:25 Is the Silicon Valley vibe shift real?

45:45 Cultural revolutions and why speech codes backfired

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