I'm calling the bottom of the property market

Dec 5, 2018

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I think we are very close to the bottom of the property market – if not already there. In fact, I believe that price growth next year will be positive. I appreciate that this prediction is contrary to most, if not all the predictions in the marketplace – most notably AMP Capital’s chief economist, Shayne Oliver predicted last week that property will fall by a further 15%. I explain my view below.

Predictions are worthless

The largest and longest study of expert predictions was undertaken by Professor Philip Tetlock in 2003. He studied 82,000 predictions over 25 years by 300 selected experts. Tetlock concludes that expert predictions were only slightly more accurate than random guesses e.g. coin tosses. Interestingly, experts with a greater media profile tended to do worse than their relatively unknown peers – which maybe suggests you should give more weight to my prediction than Shayne Oliver’s above.

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