The Take Why has Trump’s Russia-Ukraine deal stalled?
4 snips
May 1, 2025 
Anatol Lieven, Director of the Eurasia Project at the Quincy Institute, delves into the complexities of Trump's failed promise to swiftly resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict. He discusses the challenging geopolitical landscape, including contentious issues like Crimea and Ukraine's NATO aspirations. The conversation highlights Russia's unpredictable stance and the evolving U.S.-Ukraine relations after Trump's meetings with Zelensky. Ultimately, Lieven reveals the stark limitations of U.S. influence in the conflict and the implications for future diplomatic efforts.
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Key Elements of Trump's Ceasefire Plan
- Trump's ceasefire proposal demands the line to follow current battle lines, freezing territorial control.
- It mandates Ukraine abandon NATO hopes but preserves EU membership prospects.
Why Crimea Matters to Russia
- Crimea's importance to Russia is ethnic, historic, and strategic, including the port of Sevastopol.
- The majority Russian population voted to join Russia, making Crimea distinct from other Ukrainian territories.
Military Realities Limit Ukraine
- Ukraine cannot reconquer lost territory without NATO or U.S. military intervention, which the West refuses.
- The military reality is that regaining these areas by force is unrealistic for Ukraine.