The Macro Minute with Darius Dale Did the Fed just kickstart Paradigm D?
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Dec 11, 2025 Darius dives into the Fed's recent shift towards dovish policies, suggesting it may spark the beginning of Paradigm D. This change could lead to the simultaneous operation of Paradigm C and D, boosting optimism for risk assets. He outlines how five out of six major macro cycles now support this bullish outlook, potentially triggering bubbles in stocks, gold, and Bitcoin. He also discusses the nuances of KISS backtests and their implications for performance in different market conditions.
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Fed's Framework Could Start Paradigm D
- The Fed's new policy framework may usher in Paradigm D, increasing dovish, expansionary policy risks over the long term.
- Darius Dale says this raises the probability of simultaneous Paradigm C and D, which is highly bullish for risk assets.
Productivity Used To Justify Dovish Policy
- The Fed will lean on long-run productivity to justify more dovish policy and lower the policy rate.
- Darius Dale argues this rationale supports a structural reform narrative and weaker rate policy than many expect.
QE Revival Risks Favoring Wall Street
- The pivot to expansionary balance-sheet policy signals the Fed may restart QE to stabilize markets during affordability stress.
- Darius Dale warns restarting QE during a nationwide affordability crisis prioritizes Wall Street over Main Street.