Dynasty Nerds Podcast | Dynasty Fantasy Football Ep. 658: Post-Draft ADP Risers & Fallers: Can You Trust the Hype in Dynasty Rookie Drafts?
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May 7, 2025 The team dives into the post-draft surge of players and whether the hype is worth the investment. They analyze key ADP risers and fallers, discussing the balance between excitement and caution. Insights into running backs and wide receivers highlight the unpredictable nature of rookie evaluations. With a focus on strategic decision-making, the hosts emphasize the need for thorough pre-draft assessments to navigate rookie drafts effectively. Tune in for invaluable tips that can reshape your fantasy football approach!
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Post-Draft ADP Risers Rarely Hit
- Players who rise more than five spots in rookie ADP post-draft rarely become hits, with a hit rate around 13% for running backs and wide receivers.
- Staying close to pre-draft ADP increases dynasty rookie draft success odds by about threefold.
First-Round Pedigree’s Impact
- First-round pedigree at running back strongly correlates with success, making it a big factor in rookie draft evaluations.
- Running backs often rise or fall in value more based on draft capital and landing spots than pure tape grades.
Value Good Draft Capital and Landing Spot
- Consider good NFL draft capital combined with an ideal landing spot when deciding to move up a rookie running back.
- Evaluate opportunity and team fit rather than just tape when adjusting rookie running back rankings.