The Two-Sided Coin of Russian Sanctions || Peter Zeihan
Feb 1, 2025
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Explore the intricate world of Russian sanctions and their effective implementation. The discussion highlights the Shadow Fleet's tactics for evading restrictions and the domino effect this has on global supply chains. Additionally, consider the implications of targeting older vessels to enforce these sanctions further. The conversation sheds light on the complex interplay between geopolitical actions and market dynamics.
Targeting the Shadow Fleet is crucial for enhancing the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia's ability to export resources.
Implementing stricter sanctions may disrupt global supply chains and necessitate a significant military presence to protect shipping lanes.
Deep dives
Targeting the Shadow Fleet
To redesign Russian sanctions for greater impact, targeting the Shadow Fleet is essential. Current Western sanctions aim to limit Russia's income from natural resources while avoiding disruptions in supply. However, Russia has adapted by building an alternative transport system using old, decommissioned ships and state-owned insurance, allowing them to circumvent Western restrictions. A more effective approach would involve cutting off Russian access to critical shipping routes, drastically reducing their ability to export oil, gas, and other key commodities.
Consequences of Sanction Escalation
Implementing stricter sanctions would have significant implications for global markets and security. The removal of millions of barrels of crude oil and large quantities of wheat from the market would disrupt supply chains, leading to unforeseen economic repercussions. Additionally, changing how ship registries operate could lead to nations needing naval forces to protect shipping lanes, a shift that has not been seen since before World War II. This situation would require countries, particularly the United States, to adapt to a world where military capabilities determine control over maritime trade.
This video was recorded before Peter left on his New Zealand trip
Western sanctions against Russia aim to restrict revenue flows by barring access to Western shipping, banking and insurance...but there's one more step that could be taken to put the final sanction nail in the Russian coffin.