AI and the Global Battle for Tech Supremacy

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Dec 19, 2024

Jeffrey Ding, a scholar at George Washington University and author of "Technology and the Rise of Great Powers," delves into the U.S.-China tech rivalry. He presents a fresh theory emphasizing that it's not merely about developing new technologies but also about how well they spread across the economy. Ding argues that while China is perceived as an AI superpower, misconceptions about its capabilities abound. He highlights the vital role of education and decentralization in fostering innovation and discusses how effective technology diffusion can drive significant economic growth.

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INSIGHT

China's AI Illusion

China's AI prowess might be overstated, especially in large language models.
Factors include data limitations, compute restrictions, and censorship.

ANECDOTE

China's EV Success

China excels in specific technologies like electric vehicles and batteries.
However, their average worker productivity still lags behind the U.S.

INSIGHT

GPTs vs. Specialized Tech

General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) impact all sectors, unlike specialized technologies like EVs.
GPTs drive economy-wide growth through broad applications.

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It’s not often that someone comes up with a new, provocative, and persuasive theory about the competition between the US and China to be the world’s leading economic and technological superpower. The topic is so salient right now, the source of so much commentary, that it’s hard to say something that hasn’t already been said many, many times.

But this episode’s guest, Jeffrey Ding — a scholar of international relations at the George Washington University and the author of a new book called Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition — has done just that.

And the short version of Ding’s theory goes like this…

It’s not as important as you might think for a country to be the first one to develop the new technologies of the future. What really matters are two things.

First, that the technologies a country does develop are General Purpose Technologies. These are technologies that make every sector across the economy more productive, more efficient, more innovative. The personal computer and other information technologies, for example, didn’t just make the tech sector more productive. Workers in every industry use computers to be better at their jobs.

And the second thing that matters is that a country be especially good at diffusing, or spreading, those General Purpose Technologies throughout the whole economy, precisely so that those technologies can make everyone more productive.

And as Jeff argues, the US already has big advantages over China on both of these indicators. But why? What makes a country better at technological diffusion? What are the leading contenders for the general purpose technologies of the future? And what policies can a country put in place if it wants to become or remain the world’s dominant economic superpower?

You’ll find answers to those questions and more in this episode’s chat with Jeffrey Ding.

RELATED LINKS:

Jeffrey’s GitHub page
Technology and the Rise of Great Powers (Jeffrey’s book)
ChinAI (Jeffrey’s newsletter about Chinese AI)
The Illusion of China’s AI Progress (Foreign Affairs essay)

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