Peak Prosperity Weak Employment and Housing, Yet a Massive Stock Market Advance + Volatility Crush. What Gives?
Jun 13, 2025
Paul Kiker, a wealth management professional at Kiker Wealth Management, dives into the puzzling dynamics of today's economy. He discusses the stark contrast between weak employment growth and an astonishing stock market rally, raising questions about central banks' roles. Kiker highlights unsettling job market indicators and the difficulties new graduates face entering the workforce. The conversation also touches on alarming trends in the housing market and risks in private equity investments, urging caution and critical assessment of financial strategies.
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Historic Volatility Crush Amid Rally
- The largest volatility crush in history accompanied a huge stock market rise, an unprecedented combination.
- This suggests markets are unusually calm despite many risks, possibly due to speculative or institutional behavior.
Job Numbers Overstated, Data Discrepancy
- Job data revisions show consistent downward adjustments, indicating weaker employment than reported.
- A major gap between establishment and household job surveys questions the reliability of official employment figures.
Prepare For Market Volatility
- Investors and money managers should be wary of low volatility and not rely on passive strategies.
- Prepare for market volatility by seeking agile strategies and being open to challenging prevailing narratives.