E130: Elon Musk’s Network Effects and Checking in on Chinese AI w/ Byrne Hobart

This week on Upstream, we're releasing an episode of The Riff (originally aired on March 25, 2025) where Erik Torenberg and Byrne Hobart discuss Don Jr.'s leveraging of the Trump brand, Dustin Moskovitz's departure to address AI risks, economic impacts of various policies, and geopolitical considerations with a focus on AI and China's tech ambitions.

—

📰 Be notified early when Turpentine's drops new publication: https://www.turpentine.co/exclusiveaccess 

🙏 Help shape our show by taking our quick listener survey at https://bit.ly/TurpentinePulse 

—

RECOMMENDED PODCASTS: 

🎙️ Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. 

Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-riff-with-byrne-hobart-and-erik-torenberg/id1716646486 

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/6rANlV54GCARLgMOtpkzKt 

YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheRiffPodcast

—

SPONSORS:

☁️ Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) is a single platform for your infrastructure, database, application development, and AI needs. OCI has four to eight times the bandwidth of other clouds and offers one consistent price. Oracle is offering to cut your cloud bill in half. See if your company qualifies at https://oracle.com/turpentine 

🎯 Say goodbye to the headaches of out-of-home advertising. AdQuick combines technology, OOH expertise, and data to enable efficient, seamless ad buying across the globe. Visit https://adquick.com/ to start reaching your customers in the real world.

🕵️‍♂️ Take your personal data back with Incogni! Use code UPSTREAM at the link below and get 60% off an annual plan: https://incogni.com/upstream

💥 Head to Squad to access global engineering without the headache and at a fraction of the cost: head to https://choosesquad.com/  and mention “Turpentine” to skip the waitlist.

—

LINKS:

Byrne’s writing: https://thediff.co 

—

X / TWITTER:

@byrnehobart 

@eriktorenberg

@turpentinemedia

—

HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE EPISODE:

• Political Brand Leveraging & Business: Byrne discussed how Donald Trump Jr. is leveraging the Trump brand, noting this follows a pattern where relatives of politicians often engage in business dealings that trade on political connections.
• High-Stakes Career Choices: They analyzed Dustin Moskovitz's departure from Asana, suggesting it may be motivated by existential AI concerns.
• Existential Risk Perspectives: Byrne distinguished between "hot apocalypse" scenarios (like nuclear war) and "cold apocalypse" scenarios where societal function gradually deteriorates.
• Twitter/X and Elon Musk: They discussed how Musk has managed to technically restore Twitter's valuation through financial engineering and leveraging connections between his companies.
• Economic Policy and Tariffs: Extensive discussion of Trump's tariff strategy as a negotiation tactic rather than a permanent policy.
• Recession Concerns: Byrne explained how markets anticipate economic changes before they appear in employment data, creating apparent disconnects between Wall Street and Main Street indicators.