Ryan McBeth, an intelligence analyst and geopolitical expert, dives deep into the recent shifts in Syria's power structure. He reveals that Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow as his regime collapsed, with the group HTS emerging as the new power. Turkey has strategically positioned itself as a major winner after supporting rebel forces. McBeth also discusses the losses faced by Russia and Iran, the grim realities of wartime prison conditions, and the complicated geopolitical dynamics that continue to shape the region's future.
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Assad's Unexpected Path to Dictatorship
Bashar al-Assad was training to be an ophthalmologist in London when his brother died.
His father, Hafez al-Assad, then ordered him to return to Syria to prepare for leadership.
insights INSIGHT
Russia's Strategic Interest in Syria
Russia's relationship with Syria dates back to the Cold War, stemming from their need for a Mediterranean ally.
Syria's ports offered Russia crucial naval access and a strategic foothold in the Middle East.
insights INSIGHT
Alawites' Rise to Power
The Alawite minority, a sect of Shia Islam, gained control in Syria through alliances with other minorities.
They leveraged support from groups like the Druze and Christians against the larger Shia Muslim population.
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Assad fled, rebels took over, and Syria changed overnight. Intelligence analyst Ryan McBeth maps out who won, who lost, and what's next on Out of the Loop!
Welcome to what we're calling our "Out of the Loop" episodes, where we dig a little deeper into fascinating current events that may only register as a blip on the media's news cycle and have conversations with the people who find themselves immersed in them.
On This Episode of Out of the Loop:
After over a decade of civil war, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Moscow when his regime collapsed following a rapid 10-day offensive at the end of 2024. The collapse was accelerated by Hezbollah withdrawing forces to fight Israel, leaving Assad's already weak army severely undermanned.
The new controlling force in Syria is HTS (Hayat Tahrir al-Sham), led by Hamed al-Golani. While HTS was formerly affiliated with Al-Qaeda, they have since distanced themselves and are showing potentially moderate tendencies, focusing on restoring basic services rather than implementing strict religious law.
Turkey emerged as a major winner in this scenario, having strategically supported various rebel groups that helped bring down Assad's regime. Meanwhile, Russia and Iran are significant losers - Russia lost important Mediterranean naval access, and Iran lost a crucial supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
The Syrian civil war involved over 70 different factions, but they could be broadly categorized into three main anti-Assad groups: Islamist groups (like HTS), Kurdish groups (supported by the US), and moderate opposition groups. This complex web of alliances and conflicts made the situation particularly difficult to resolve.
Despite the country's painful history, Syria has immense potential for rebuilding and renewal. The country was historically known for its rich culture, welcoming people, incredible food, and archaeological treasures. The current focus on restoring basic services and apparent willingness of different factions to cooperate suggests that with proper support and governance, Syria could begin healing and rebuilding its vibrant society.
Connect with Jordan on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube. If you have something you'd like us to tackle here on an Out of the Loop episode, drop Jordan a line at jordan@jordanharbinger.com and let him know!
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