Ep. 233 Mark Minervini: Going Further By Failing Earlier
Sep 7, 2023
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U.S. Investing Champion Mark Minervini shares strategies to mitigate stock market uncertainties and the importance of failing early. He discusses Uber's potential for a breakout year and the benefits of Vitesse Energy in a strengthened oil and gas market. The podcast covers topics such as broad market participation, sticking to trading rules, cutting losses, the transition of the masterclass to an online program, analyzing IPOs and spin-offs, and how stock liquidity influences buying decisions.
Market indexes may be misleading, so it is important to focus on individual stocks and their participation in the market.
Maintaining a cautious approach and carefully analyzing individual stock setups is recommended in the current market conditions.
Strictly adhering to trading rules and avoiding deviations or impulsive trades is essential for long-term success.
Deep dives
Market Volatility and Index Participation
Mark Minervini discusses the misleading nature of market indexes and their heavy reliance on a few dominant stocks. He emphasizes the importance of looking beyond the indexes and focusing on individual stocks and their participation in the market. He points out that currently, participation in the market is not very broad, with only a small percentage of stocks trading above their 200-day moving average. While the indexes may be moving higher, the lack of broad participation suggests that investors may not see the same level of profitability. Mark recommends careful analysis of individual stocks and their setups, rather than relying solely on index movements.
Cash Position and Caution
Mark Minervini shares that he is currently holding a significant cash position due to the market conditions. While he has started adding a few names to his portfolio during pullbacks and follow-through days, he remains cautious and is treading lightly. Mark explains that recent distribution days after a follow-through day can lower the odds of immediate success and may result in a pullback. He also highlights the importance of maintaining a two-to-one reward-to-risk ratio and adjusting risk based on market conditions. While the market may still offer opportunities, Mark suggests focusing on individual stock performance and considering smaller, more selective positions rather than a shotgun approach.
The Dangers of 'Just This Once' Mentality
Mark Minervini emphasizes the dangers of deviating from one's trading rules and succumbing to the 'just this once' mentality. He shares his personal experience of facing such moments early in his trading career and the negative consequences that ensued. Mark advises traders to establish strict rules and discipline, particularly in cutting losses and avoiding forced or impulsive trades. He cautions against falling into confirmation bias by seeking out information or experts to justify breaking rules. Instead, Mark encourages traders to find a proven strategy that suits their style and stick to it consistently, avoiding the temptation to make exceptions that ultimately erode long-term success.
Expanding the Playbook
The speaker discusses the importance of expanding one's playbook in trading. They explain that missing out on a breakout opportunity can lead to new corollaries or opportunities to enter a stock at an advantageous position. By adding these plays to one's trading strategy, the playbook expands and becomes a set of rules. The speaker emphasizes the significance of staying disciplined and following established rules in trading.
Managing Risk and Emotions
The speaker shares their approach to managing risk and emotions in trading. They highlight the importance of setting concrete rules, such as not holding onto a big loss or adding to losing positions. They also emphasize the need for traders to overcome emotional challenges, maintain discipline, and execute their strategies properly. Additionally, the speaker mentions the value of analyzing past trades and results to identify patterns and improve trading performance. They note that trading not only helps with financial gains but also contributes to personal growth and self-awareness.
This week, amidst Fed rate-fueled concerns, U.S. Investing Champion Mark Minervini joins the "Investing with IBD" podcast to discuss strategies to help mitigate stock market uncertainties – and how to learn fast by failing early. We end with a look at Minervini's top watchlist names, including Uber (UBER), which could be on the cusp of a "breakout year" for earnings, and recent spinoff Vitesse Energy (VTS), which is benefiting from a strengthened oil and gas market.