Would long-range missiles for Ukraine pull the U.S. into a war with Russia?
Sep 22, 2024
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Tom Bowman, a seasoned Pentagon reporter, dives into the complexities of U.S. military aid to Ukraine amid its ongoing conflict with Russia. He discusses the pressing demand for long-range missiles and the potential risks involved, such as escalating tensions and direct U.S. involvement. Bowman highlights the delicate balance between aiding Ukraine and avoiding a broader war. The conversation also touches on recent military strategies and the implications of advanced weaponry within the global political landscape.
The U.S. has gradually escalated military aid to Ukraine, leading to intense discussions about providing advanced long-range missiles amid fears of provoking Russia.
While Ukraine seeks to enhance its military capabilities urgently, the U.S. remains cautious due to potential direct conflict risks and the need for strategic reserves.
Deep dives
U.S. Military Support for Ukraine
The United States has incrementally provided military support to Ukraine since the onset of Russia's invasion, starting with long-range artillery capable of hitting targets 20 miles away and progressing to artillery rockets with a 52-mile range. Recently, calls from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for access to even more advanced long-range missiles, which can strike targets up to 190 miles away, have intensified. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has suggested that such requests are under consideration, signaling that discussions about advanced weaponry continue. However, this potential escalation raises concerns about direct conflict with Russia, particularly given warnings from President Putin regarding NATO involvement.
Western Allies' Response to Military Assistance
As Ukraine continues to request long-range missiles, discussions among Western allies, particularly the UK and France, are shifting due to changing conditions on the ground, like Iran supplying missiles to Russia. Although Britain and France possess long-range missiles that may meet Ukrainian needs, U.S. approval is required due to American-made components. The cautious approach of the Biden administration contrasts with the urgency felt by Ukrainian officials, creating frustration as they seek to enhance their military capacity. Analysts debate the necessity and effectiveness of these weapons, with some emphasizing the importance of continuing to constrict Russia's military capabilities.
Strategic Military Considerations
Military support discussions have highlighted the limitations of current weapon stockpiles and the strategic calculus involved in sending advanced missiles to Ukraine. Estimates suggest that Ukraine has around 250 potential targets for long-range strikes, ranging from military outposts to supply depots, which could disrupt Russia's offensive capabilities. However, the U.S. is cautious about deploying more missiles, wanting to maintain a reserve for different potential conflicts globally. In addition to external support, U.S. officials are pushing Ukraine to recruit more actively, especially young soldiers, to strengthen its defense and prepare for ongoing hostilities.
It's been more than two and half years since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Since then, the U.S. and its NATO allies have slowly and incrementally provided military assistance to Ukraine.
In recent months, Ukraine has been pressing for American long-range missiles with the ability to strike deep into Russia. But some officials fear that providing such weapons could place the U.S. and its allies in direct conflict with Russia.
Host Scott Detrow speaks with Pentagon reporter Tom Bowman.
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