Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Seth Carpenter Talks Trump Economy
Jan 6, 2025
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Seth Carpenter, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the implications of the Trump administration's economic policies. He discusses the complexities of global trade and the potential impact of tariffs on currency and growth. Carpenter also unpacks how technological advancements can boost productivity while navigating economic uncertainty. Additionally, he highlights the effects of immigration on employment and GDP, shedding light on the challenges of economic forecasting leading into 2025.
Tariff policies are projected to increase inflation while restricting growth, challenging policymakers' ability to manage the economy effectively.
The integration of AI into the economy poses challenges for measuring productivity gains, highlighting a disconnect between micro-level efficiency and macroeconomic data.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade
The podcast discusses the significant influence of tariff policies on the global economy, emphasizing the need to understand how these tariffs will affect inflation and growth in 2025. The host mentions that both tariff restrictions and immigration policies will play crucial roles in shaping economic conditions. Tariffs are expected to increase inflation while simultaneously restricting growth, presenting a challenge for policymakers. The timing and implementation of these tariffs—whether they will be introduced all at once or phased in over the year—are highlighted as areas of irreducible uncertainty that could markedly impact economic forecasts.
The Role of Technology in Productivity
The discussion covers the complexities in translating advancements in technology, particularly artificial intelligence, into measurable economic productivity. While financial analysts believe that AI will enhance efficiency in sectors like financial services, the competitive landscape may dilute these benefits, making it difficult for macroeconomic data to reflect actual productivity gains. The podcast illustrates this with the example of hedge funds utilizing AI to analyze more stocks but facing competitive pressures that could neutralize those efficiencies. This disconnect between micro-level improvements and macro-level data poses a significant challenge for economists and forecasters.
Forecasting Challenges in a Complex Economic Landscape
The podcast emphasizes the forecasting difficulties faced in 2025, particularly due to uncertainties surrounding immigration policies and their impact on the labor market. The hosts convey concerns that a reduction in immigration could lead to a notable decrease in labor supply, potentially hindering economic growth. They point out that while immigration has fueled economic expansion and maintained lower inflation rates in recent years, anticipated restrictions might shift this dynamic dramatically. With ongoing revisions in data metrics like the unemployment rate, the need for frequent updates in economic forecasts becomes essential in navigating this unpredictable environment.
Seth Carpenter, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, takes a look at what could be in store for the global economy as Trump re-enters the White House. He speaks with hosts Tom Keene and Paul Sweeney.