Bloomberg Talks Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Seth Carpenter Talks Trump Economy
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Jan 6, 2025 Seth Carpenter, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the implications of the Trump administration's economic policies. He discusses the complexities of global trade and the potential impact of tariffs on currency and growth. Carpenter also unpacks how technological advancements can boost productivity while navigating economic uncertainty. Additionally, he highlights the effects of immigration on employment and GDP, shedding light on the challenges of economic forecasting leading into 2025.
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Key Economic Disagreements
- The biggest disagreement among Seth Carpenter's team at Morgan Stanley revolves around tariff policy assumptions.
- They also debate the impact of global trade on the world economy in 2025.
AI's Macroeconomic Impact
- Translating the impact of AI from a microeconomic level to macroeconomic data is complex.
- While AI may boost productivity in certain sectors, it might not be reflected in broader economic data.
Trump Administration Economic Policies
- Morgan Stanley advises clients to focus on trade and immigration policies under the incoming Trump administration.
- They suggest setting aside fiscal policy and deregulation for 2025 due to limited macroeconomic impact.