Bloomberg Talks
Morgan Stanley Chief Economist Seth Carpenter Talks Trump Economy
Jan 6, 2025
Seth Carpenter, Chief Economist at Morgan Stanley, dives into the implications of the Trump administration's economic policies. He discusses the complexities of global trade and the potential impact of tariffs on currency and growth. Carpenter also unpacks how technological advancements can boost productivity while navigating economic uncertainty. Additionally, he highlights the effects of immigration on employment and GDP, shedding light on the challenges of economic forecasting leading into 2025.
10:53
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Quick takeaways
- Tariff policies are projected to increase inflation while restricting growth, challenging policymakers' ability to manage the economy effectively.
- The integration of AI into the economy poses challenges for measuring productivity gains, highlighting a disconnect between micro-level efficiency and macroeconomic data.
Deep dives
Impact of Tariff Policies on Global Trade
The podcast discusses the significant influence of tariff policies on the global economy, emphasizing the need to understand how these tariffs will affect inflation and growth in 2025. The host mentions that both tariff restrictions and immigration policies will play crucial roles in shaping economic conditions. Tariffs are expected to increase inflation while simultaneously restricting growth, presenting a challenge for policymakers. The timing and implementation of these tariffs—whether they will be introduced all at once or phased in over the year—are highlighted as areas of irreducible uncertainty that could markedly impact economic forecasts.
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