Doom Debates Richard Hanania vs. Liron Shapira — AI Doom Debate
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Jun 28, 2025 
In this enlightening discussion, Richard Hanania, President of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology, debates AI risks with Liron Shapira. They delve into the skepticism surrounding AI doom predictions, questioning the nature of intelligence and optimization. Hanania argues that positive AI outcomes are just as likely as negative ones, exploring themes like job impacts and the alignment of AI with human values. Their spirited dialogue confronts the complexities of political discourse and the potential for technology to shape humanity's future.
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Hanania's AI Doom Probability
- Richard Hanania assigns a 2% existential risk of AI doom by 2040 and 5% by 2100, displaying cautious optimism.
- He emphasizes skepticism due to lack of knockdown arguments for imminent doom.
Base Rate Skepticism on AI Doom
- Hanania adopts a base rate skepticism on AI doom citing historical failed doom predictions.
- He argues the elaborate story of AI ending humanity lacks a concrete precedent and requires strong proof.
Intelligence as Optimization Power
- Intelligence defined as optimization power, the ability to hit goals, offers a meaningful way to compare natural and artificial systems.
- This consequentialist perspective highlights a qualitative shift at the emergence of life and natural selection.
