In technology we do a lot of hero worshiping, especially the disruptors. What happens when their moats dry up and their great ideas start showing cracks?
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WE CELEBRATE THE BIG FUNDING, THE DISRUPTORS AND THE STORIES
When things are good - low interest rates, stock price is up, VC money is flowing in, disruption gets valued at high multiples - lots of stories get written about the disruptors. But when things change - the stories are written about their failures.
BUT THE DISRUPTION RARELY LAST FOREVER.
It’s important to match the disruption era with the economic era.
A lot of stories will be written about how badly the economics of the “disruptor companies” were during the halcyon days (Uber, WeWork, Netflix, etc.)
Frauds will be called out.
Culture will remain important, but impossible to replicate cultures will get dissected, and profitability will take precedence over culture.
The ecosystems of the largest companies will start to wonder if it’s still a good idea, as the largest expand their offerings.
Good new technologies will have lower visibility and have to build staying power.
