Economist Podcasts America’s next top model: predicting the midterm results
Sep 7, 2022
Shoshan Joshi, Defense editor for The Economist with expertise in Asian geopolitics, and Catherine Nixey, Britain correspondent focused on cultural restitution, delve into fascinating topics. They discuss a predictive model for the midterm elections, revealing potential outcomes for both parties. Joshi explains the current nuclear balance in Asia and why an arms race hasn’t emerged yet. Nixey highlights the ongoing debate over the Rosetta Stone's return to Egypt, emphasizing the complexities of cultural heritage and ownership.
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Midterm Predictions
- The Economist's midterm election model predicts Republicans will likely take the House and Democrats the Senate.
- The model considers various factors like generic ballot polling, presidential approval, and special election results.
Model Predictions and Confidence
- The Economist's model gives Democrats a 24% chance of holding the House and a 76% chance of keeping the Senate.
- Predicted margins are narrow, with Republicans potentially winning 224 House seats and Democrats 51 Senate seats.
Importance of Election Models
- Predicting control of government branches is crucial for understanding US public policy.
- Models help systematically combine data from many races for accurate predictions.
