Is evolution predictable? with Simon Conway Morris | Reason with Science | Emergence | Convergence

Is evolution predictable? The guest for this podcast is with Simon Conway Morris, Professor of Evolutionary Palaeobiology at the University of Cambridge. Famous for his work on the Cambrian explosion and the concept of evolutionary convergence, Conway Morris has written influential books including Life’s Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe, The Runes of Evolution, and From Extraterrestrials to Animal Minds. In this conversation, we talk about why convergence — the independent evolution of similar traits across unrelated species — offers evidence for deep constraints on the evolution of life. We’ll discuss major evolutionary transitions such as the origin of eukaryotes, sudden explosions of complexity, and the narrow “design space” within which evolution operates. We’ll examine whether traits like intelligence and consciousness are inevitable, why extinction often leads to familiar replacements, and how evolution’s predictability might extend to technology, culture, and even artificial intelligence.As Conway Morris provocatively asks: “If we replayed the tape of life, would we still end up with eyes, wings, minds—and perhaps even something like us?” This episode explores how the physical, chemical, and biological constraints that underpin convergence shape the living world and why, despite its complexity, evolution may be far more predictable than we imagine.

Guest info:Website: https://www.esc.cam.ac.uk/directory/simon-conway-morris

Episode links:

Website: https://reasonwithscience.com/is-evolution-predictable-with-simon-conway-morris

Youtube: https://youtu.be/mYpFJbJsWYA

Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/7cr8LN9qfsVz40ykFSjC3O?si=bae3fa740cbb4e77

Apple podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/is-evolution-predictable-with-simon-conway-morris/id1641776894?i=1000721290043

YouTube music: https://music.youtube.com/watch?v=mYpFJbJsWYA&si=7RgntDEFRkqAh9hS

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Apple podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reason-with-science/id1641776894

YouTube music: https://music.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLila1Jm-QEwKu4xXtNpYFAsSDmPR9mlZB&si=5ehXeZhZ-z181G5b

Timestamps:

00:00:00 – Introduction

00:02:00 – Starting point: evolution’s predictability

00:06:44 – Predictability of evolution & extraterrestrial comparisons

00:10:56 – Deep homology and universal molecular pathways

00:16:30 – Randomness vs probabilities in evolution

00:19:41 – Major evolutionary transitions

00:27:47 – Convergent evolution as a predictive framework

00:42:45 – Laboratory evolution experiments

00:49:57 – Human uniqueness vs other primates

01:02:46 – Dyson spheres & the Fermi paradox

01:06:09 – Human peculiarity and consciousness

01:14:02 – Limits of understanding consciousness

01:27:20 – Challenges in improving science funding

01:38:59 – Mavericks and unpredictability of great ideas

01:42:01 – Theology and spirituality in society

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