Talking Geopolitics Unrest in Iran: A Tipping Point for the Middle East?
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Jan 14, 2026 
George Friedman, founder of Geopolitical Futures and a bestselling author, teams up with Kamran Bokhari, a regional security expert, to dissect Iran's volatile protests. They explore the impact of Iran’s turmoil on the Middle East, the deep fractures within its power structure, and the U.S. motives for potential intervention. Discussion shifts to the challenges of military action, regional repercussions, and the risks of a messy fall-out. With insights into Israel's cautious stance and the threat of extremism, the conversation is a gripping look at a geopolitical crisis.
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Iran As The Region's Pivot
- Iran sits at the center of a reorganizing Middle East and its fate reshapes the region.
- What happens in Iran matters for terrorism, the South Caucasus, and broader regional stability.
Economic Shock Opened A Political Crack
- The 2025 currency collapse and IRGC losses created a unique opening for protests to spread widely.
- The regime's weakened enforcement options forced it toward a violent crackdown instead of effective negotiation.
Two Militaries, One Fragile State
- Power has shifted away from the clergy toward military institutions, creating a contested succession dynamic.
- Iran effectively has two militaries (Artesh and IRGC), meaning internal control is ambiguous and fragile.