The David Lin Report Market Warning: ‘Topping Phase’ Reached Says Cycle | Richard Smith
Oct 1, 2025
Richard Smith, Chairman of the Foundation for the Study of Cycles, delves into the implications of long-term economic cycles. He argues that the U.S. is entering a phase of rising interest rates and persistent inflation due to record debt levels. Smith highlights the historical context of a staggering $37 trillion debt, the potential for stagflation, and impending market dynamics. He also explores how collective human behavior drives cycles, warns of asymmetrical risks, and examines the effects of geopolitical factors like U.S.-China relations on financial stability.
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Cycles Reflect Collective Human Behavior
- Cycles are inherent to human behavior and manifest across economics, biology, and climate.
- Richard Smith argues markets repeat at predictable intervals because collective human actions oscillate over time.
Late-Stage Debt Cycle Risks
- The U.S. is entering the late stage of an ~85-year debt cycle with interest rates likely to rise for years.
- Rising rates plus massive debt create asymmetric downside risks from higher debt servicing costs.
Inflation In A 64-Month Upcycle
- CPI shows a 64-month cycle and is in an early upcycle, indicating inflation pressures ahead.
- Smith expects inflation to be sticky and rise for 12–18 months despite Fed efforts.
