Causal Bandits Podcast Causal Inference, Human Behavior, Science Crisis & The Power of Causal Graphs | Julia Rohrer S2E5 | CausalBanditsPodcast.com
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Jun 4, 2025 Julia Rohrer, a personality psychologist at the University of Leipzig and senior editor of Psychological Science, dives into fascinating topics like the reproducibility crisis in psychology and how it may relate to a broader scientific discourse. She critiques the impact of social media on youth mental health and discusses the intricacies of establishing causal inferences. The conversation also covers the significance of multiverse analysis, using birth order and personality traits as a case study, and the importance of Directed Acyclic Graphs in psychological education.
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Challenges in Psychological Causal Inference
- Causal inference in psychology is tough due to fuzzy psychological causes and challenges with measuring them.
- The field often denies causal inference from observational data, leading to a peculiar research culture.
Replication and Causal Inference
- Weak statistical evidence and p-hacking caused many failed replications in psychology despite experimental setups.
- Correlational studies using large samples replicate well but often suffer from confounding biases.
Limitations of Randomization Awareness
- Psychologists know randomization is needed but often miss that it only supports limited causal conclusions.
- Other fields like epidemiology and economics are behind psychology in acknowledging replicability and variability challenges.
