Julia Rohrer, a personality psychologist at the University of Leipzig and senior editor of Psychological Science, dives into fascinating topics like the reproducibility crisis in psychology and how it may relate to a broader scientific discourse. She critiques the impact of social media on youth mental health and discusses the intricacies of establishing causal inferences. The conversation also covers the significance of multiverse analysis, using birth order and personality traits as a case study, and the importance of Directed Acyclic Graphs in psychological education.
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Challenges in Psychological Causal Inference
Causal inference in psychology is tough due to fuzzy psychological causes and challenges with measuring them.
The field often denies causal inference from observational data, leading to a peculiar research culture.
insights INSIGHT
Replication and Causal Inference
Weak statistical evidence and p-hacking caused many failed replications in psychology despite experimental setups.
Correlational studies using large samples replicate well but often suffer from confounding biases.
insights INSIGHT
Limitations of Randomization Awareness
Psychologists know randomization is needed but often miss that it only supports limited causal conclusions.
Other fields like epidemiology and economics are behind psychology in acknowledging replicability and variability challenges.
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In 'Everything is Obvious: Once You Know the Answer', Duncan J. Watts challenges the notion that common sense provides reliable explanations for social and economic outcomes. Drawing on scientific research and historical examples, Watts argues that our reliance on common sense can lead to misunderstandings of human behavior and societal trends. He emphasizes the importance of recognizing these limitations to improve our understanding and planning for the future.
*About The Guest* Julia Rohrer, PhD, is a researcher and personality psychologist at the University of Leipzig. She's interested in the effects of birth order, age patterns in personality, human well-being, and causal inference. Her works have been published in top journals, including Nature Human Behavior. She has been an active advocate for increased research transparency, and she continues this mission as a senior editor of Psychological Science. Julia frequently gives talks about good practices in science and causal inference. You can read Julia's blog at https://www.the100.ci/
*Links* Papers
- Rohrer, J. (2024) "Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them" (https://compass.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/spc3.12948)
- Bailey, D., ..., Rohrer, J. et al (2024) "Causal inference on human behaviour" (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-024-01939-z.epdf)
- Rohrer, J. et al (2024) "The Effects of Satisfaction with Different Domains of Life on Gen
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