Milk Road Macro The Most Important Thing In Macro: How Investors Can Dominate in Q4 w/ Caleb Franzen
Sep 11, 2025
Caleb Franzen, a financial analyst and founder of Cubic Analytics, dives into the nuances of macroeconomic trends and investment strategies. He explains how to interpret inflation data and why asset prices can offer the clearest signals in the market. Caleb discusses the implications of potential Fed rate cuts and advises investors on stacking Bitcoin, projecting a target price of $175,000. He emphasizes focusing on market signals instead of relying solely on traditional economic indicators.
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Asset Prices Are The Best Crystal Ball
- Asset prices are the most honest forward-looking indicator available and often beat macro data at predicting the future.
- Caleb prioritizes technicals because prices discount future cash flows and provide a tighter set of outcomes than economists' views.
Breakouts Are Broad, Not Just Tech
- Multiple global and sector indices are breaking out to new highs, showing broad-based participation beyond just mega-cap tech.
- Broad breakouts (value, emerging markets, dividends) support the thesis that we're in a durable uptrend.
Short-Term Yields Signal Fed Cuts
- Short-dated Treasury yields below the fed funds rate show markets are pricing imminent rate cuts, likely 25 bps rather than 50 bps.
- Caleb reads one- and three-month yields as a real-time signal of Fed expectations and market pricing.