Effectively Wild Episode 1726: Hit, Stand, or Surrender

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the one-for-one A’s-Marlins swap involving Starling Marte and Jesús Luzardo, Marte’s underrated career, and Miami’s enviable pitching stockpile, then discuss the circumstances surrounding a potential trade of Max Scherzer. After that (35:21), they talk to FiveThirtyEight senior writer Neil Paine about the factors that affect whether teams add or subtract at the trade deadline, Neil’s “Doyle Number” metric for assessing trade-season incentives, how this year’s unusual playoff picture has created unusual deadline conditions, and specific teams that should or shouldn’t be motivated to make moves.

Audio intro: Guided By Voices, "Bellicose Starling"
Audio interstitial: Modest Mouse, "Bankrupt on Selling"
Audio outro: Arthur Brown, "Come and Buy"

Link to Marte WAR comparison
Link to Zach Kram on trading top prospects
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the Scherzer talks
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Nationals
Link to story on Scherzer’s contract
Link to “Doyle Number” articles
Link to Jayson Stark on execs at the deadline
Link to 2021 “Doyle Number” data
Link to Rob Arthur on the playoff picture
Link to Neil’s “Hall of Good” series
Link to FiveThirtyEight’s forecast history
Link to Neil’s research on true talent
Link to Hot Takedown podcast

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