The Big Story

Will the US election also decide Ukraine's fate?

Nov 5, 2024

Dr. Balkan Devlen, Director of the Transatlantic Program, shares his insights on the gripping intersection of U.S. elections and the Ukrainian conflict. He discusses how a potential Trump victory could jeopardize U.S. support for Ukraine, while a Harris win may not shift the status quo. The dire conditions on the battlefield for Ukrainian troops are highlighted, especially with North Korean troops now in the mix. Devlen raises alarms about the geopolitical implications for Europe amidst a looming power vacuum created by U.S. political instability.

22:55

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Balkan Devlen

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Quick takeaways

The U.S. election outcomes will critically impact Ukraine's support, with Trump potentially shifting towards negotiations with Russia and Harris likely maintaining the status quo.

The dire conditions on the ground for Ukrainian forces are compounded by low ammunition supplies and increasing Russian aggression, raising concerns for both regional and global stability.

Deep dives

Impact of the U.S. Election on Ukraine's Future

The upcoming American election is critical for Ukraine's future in the context of the ongoing conflict with Russia. While immediate effects may be significant, the long-term outcome will hinge on the actions of European allies in maintaining support for Ukraine, regardless of who wins the presidency. Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have distinct approaches to the conflict; for instance, Harris is likely to continue the current administration's support, while Trump's rhetoric suggests a potential shift towards negotiating with Russia, which raises concerns in Europe and Ukraine. Opinions on which candidate would be more beneficial for Ukraine are varied, with no consensus emerging among European and Ukrainian observers.

Intro

4min

Contrasting Strategies: Biden Continuity vs. Trump's Uncertainty in Ukraine Policy

2min

Bleak Battlefield Realities

7min

Ukraine's Resilience: A Conflict at 1000 Days

6min

Concerns of Political Instability and Global Power Vacuum

3min

With the invasion of Ukraine nearing the 1000-day mark, there are questions about where Ukraine's defenders find themselves. Russia has been making a strong push to stake out more ground, and in Russian-occupied territory there a reports of its soldiers hunting civilians. Despite an offensive into Russia earlier this year, the situation seems to be dire.

And when America votes today on its next president, few countries will have as much at stake as Ukraine, which faces the possibility of being all but abandoned by America with a Trump victory. Meanwhile, would a Harris victory do anything more for Ukraine than the status quo? And is the presence of North Korean troops in Russia an indication this war is about to become more than a "regional" conflict?

GUEST: Dr. Balkan Devlen, Director of the Transatlantic Program and Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Adjunct professor at Carleton University, expert forecaster for Good Judgment Inc.

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