Wall Street's predictions for the US economy in 2024, including a mild economic slowdown and efforts to maintain growth. Factors influencing the stock market in 2023, such as declining interest rates and the rise of AI. The surprise strength of the American consumer and its potential impact on consumer spending. The impact of disruptive forces, AI outlook, and upcoming elections on the global economy. Experts' opinions on the future state of the market in 2024, ranging from a potential hard landing to all-time highs and a Goldilocks economy.
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Quick takeaways
Wall Street predicts a 'soft-ish' landing and continued consumer strength for 2024, but uncertainties like interest rate changes and technological advances can create new unknowns.
Artificial intelligence (AI) is expected to be a long-term investment theme with significant growth potential, as AI-related stocks continue to rise and evolve.
Deep dives
Expectations of a Mild Economic Slowdown
The consensus on Wall Street is that the interest rate hikes of the past year will lead to a mild and benign economic slowdown, known as a soft landing. The aim is to cool the economy and tame inflation without causing a harsh downturn. Financial professionals are investing based on this consensus, and the stock market has responded positively. However, there are still concerns about the resilience of the consumer and whether the predicted slowdown will hold.
AI and the Future of Investing
Artificial intelligence (AI) is seen as a continuing investment theme with long-term potential. Many outlook reports highlight AI's impact and consider it an evolving trend rather than a temporary phenomenon. The rise of AI-related stocks has been significant, and the expectation is that this growth will continue in the coming years.
Uncertainty Surrounding Elections
The upcoming elections in several major economies, including the US, UK, India, and Taiwan, add a layer of uncertainty to the market outlook for 2024. Wall Street outlook reports are cautious about making specific predictions regarding these elections and anticipate increased volatility as they approach. The outcome of these elections will influence global markets and economies.
At the end of every year, Wall Street’s best and brightest release their predictions about where the economy is heading next. Markets reporter Sam Potter has pored through this year’s financial tea leaves – thousands of pages of them – and joined the show to share the most significant takeaways. Overall, there’s optimism about a “soft-ish” landing, disinflation, and continued consumer strength.
But the consensus view has missed the markbefore, and 2024 will bring new unknowns, from interest rate changes to technological advances to global elections. We walk through the possibilities, and the stakes: What can we expect if Wall Street is right? And what happens if they’re wrong?